IT'S LIGHTS OUT AMERICA ... ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK

- Mark

THE AMOUNT OF MONEY WE'VE "CREATED" SUGGESTS WE'RE "AS RICH AS CROESUS" ... BUT WE'RE REALLY LIVING IN A FINANCIAL HOUSE OF CARDS

Have you ever wondered how much money humans have created up to this point in history? Whether it's real, in special accounts, or claimed in derivative contracts, it's quite considerable (more on this below). 

Unfortunately, for all the money we've created - or now makes claims to - we're not living in the best of times. Like in the story of Croesus, we are learning that having access to all the wealth one could ever imagine brings neither happiness nor the tranquility many want to believe might come with having so much money.

Croesus, King of Lydia (located in modern Turkey), is the inspiration for the term "As rich as Croesus."

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As a starting point for understanding how much money we've created, the block chart below provides insight into how much real and digital money we have floating around the world ... 

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In real simple terms about $80.9 trillion has been created. About $5 trillion of that amount in real cash and coins. The remainder is available in checking accounts - about $20.8 trillion - or in specialized instruments, like savings and money market accounts, which contributes another $60.1 trillion.

But this is just the beginning. 

When we add debt contracts and the increasingly obnoxious derivative claims on money we learn that we have created such a colossal sum of money that even Croesus might wince. 

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So how much money have we created? More to the point, how much have we created, and now have a claim to in our digitalized world? Croesus would be impressed. It's probably well over a quadrillion dollars. Check out the video clip below...

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One more point. The pile of money we've "created" is really a house of cards. My regular readers, and those who understand derivative instruments, know why.

More on this later. Stay tuned.

- Mark

THE MOST TRADED CURRENCIES OF 2016

From the Bank for International Settlements we get the "Triennial Central Bank Survey," which tells us which currencies are traded the most.

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- Mark

WELCOME TO THE CIRCUS ... A FEW THOUGHTS ON DONALD TRUMP'S "PRESS CONFERENCE"

If you missed Donald Trump's press conference this morning, don't worry. Apart from the now standard lies and the bizzare spectacle that surrounds his being, you didn't miss much; especially from a policy perspective. If you want to watch Trump's press conference, but don't have the time to sit through it, you will be happy to know I watched. Call it my civic duty.

Here's my take on what transpired, which I posted on my FB page after the press conference ended:

After complaining and denying what's in the intelligence reports, Trump turned his press conference over to a tax attorney who simply read off a prepared statement (why don't they just put it online?). 

He then started lying about things like Obamacare (premiums are rising at a slower pace than before, while subsidies cover rising costs). 

Then he belittled press groups ("fake news") he dislikes, and continued to cover for Putin (expected) ... 

I'm sure Trump's supporters think this is great. Then again, they also believe Mexico will pay for the wall, and have no problem with Trump's 6 bankruptcies and his serial philandering. 

If this is what our future looks like, welcome to the circus.

After thinking about this a bit more, there are several additional takeaways ...

First, Donald Trump clearly doesn't like being held to account for the things he says. He made this clear when he refused to call on the CNN correspondent who tried desperately to respond to Trump's attack on the network's reporting. Trump told him not to be "rude."

As well, you might disagree but it seems like Donald Trump is turning something that should be taken seriously into a WWE-style smoke & mirrors show. The press have effectively become referee-like props, who Trump can ignore or call on when the WWE moment requires. He's already Tweeting past them so, in many ways, they are there simply to provide an air of propriety on Trump's Presidentialmania Smackdown stage.

Finally, in the "you can't make this stuff up" moment, Sherri Dillon, the tax attorney who read off a prepared statement during the press conference - with the appropriate props at her side - left without answering a single question. Was she the WWE diva, given a role simply to distract?

The real strange twist regarding Sherri Dillon is that she works for Morgan Lewis, a company that was recognized as Russia Law Firm of the Year, 2016. Seriously.

Again, welcome to the circus.

Sigh ...

- Mark

HOW TO RESPOND TO TRUMP APOLOGISTS WHO CLAIM THEY'RE NOT SUPPORTERS, BUT WANT US TO COME TOGETHER UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP

Do you have friends, either on social media or in your life, who like to claim "I didn't vote for Trump," but now want you to "give Trump a chance" out of a new found "respect for the office"?

If you're like me, you watched as they started coming out after the election; and their numbers are growing.

Worse, they're starting to become as annoying as the true believers. Check this out.

On my Facebook page there's one Trump apologist who says he doesn't support Trump, but wants everyone to get along for the sake of the nation. Let's call him Mike. According to Mike it's the only way things can "get better." Mike thinks there's been enough acrimony (which is true) and that we should come together now because President Obama is "trying to do all the damage he can on the way out" (which is not true). He's especially displeased that Americans on both sides of the political fence are "ROOTING IT ALL ON."

The horror of it all.

You're probably seeing the holes in Mike's arguments already. I did. It didn't take long. Here's my FB response to Mike's false equivalency cry for national unity.

Mike, this is why it's so hard to take what you say seriously. Explain to us how President Obama is "trying to do all the damage he can on the way out" ... 

By trying to lump President Obama and Trump together as politically destructive twins bent on damaging our Republic, you present a false equivalency under the guise of claiming to be a neutral observer. You are not above the political fray if you want people to give a borderline psycho respect. Nobody's "ROOTING IT ALL ON" from this side. We're very clear: Trump is ticking time bomb, and I'm not going to cheer him on in the name of civility. 

Here's the real problem: You want people to respect Donald Trump, while badmouthing President Obama, as if he's Trump's political equal. Yet, you ignore the years of GOP-Tea Party-Fox led obstructionism Obama had to endure. Obama now has to hand the keys to the White House over a man who put himself in the presidential orbit with his race-baiting birther stupidity. 

You want things to "get better" but don't seem to understand how this happens only if progressives take a step back and ignore how Trump's road to the White House was paved with hate, bigotry, and deceit. Good one. 

Anything else you want progressives to forget so Trump's feelings don't get hurt? 

Trump has earned all the scorn and ridicule he's receiving, and more. 

So, Mike, it's up to you to explain how Obama and Trump are opposite sides of the same coin. And, no, Mike, the GOP & Fox-led email-Benghazi BS is not the same as the Russians working to undermine America's democratic process, while installing a world class buffoon in the White House. 

Not even close.

As President-elect Trump continues to embarrass himself and our nation by runnning interference for the Russians, tweet shaming people like Arnold Schwarzengger (for no apparent reason), ignoring America's long-term national security interests, denying that he mocked the disabled, goes after Meryl Streep for effectively exercising her 1st Amendment rights, and generally making a fool out of himself with unnecessary tweets (lies) about things like a shortage of "great dresses" for his inauguration (seriously?) is not something we all should stand by and watch out of "respect for the office."

Watching a kid play with matches in a garment factory is not the adult thing to do.

The fact that Trump "apologists" (cough, cough) want us to get on the Trump bandwagon for the sake of the nation is akin to doing nothing when your child is stricken with an illness, or enabling a loved one as they fall into any number of self-destructive patterns.

This is something I'm not prepared to do.

- Mark

POLAR BEAR MASCOT CLIP ... HILARIOUS

This polar bear mascot clip is hilarious ...

- Mark

TRUMP, KEEPING IT CLASSY [facepalm] ...

Doesn't Donald Trump have something better to do than this ...

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Well, I guess we can begin this countdown ...

Sigh ... 

- Mark

Hat tip to Leonel for the story line.

WHY CONSERVATIVES WANT TO IGNORE RUSSIA'S MANCHURIAN OPERATIONS IN AMERICA

Before the 2016 presidential elections Donald Trump's supporters were worried about Hillary Clinton's emails because of what they might disclose. But today they have no problem with very real evidence that says Russia was effectively running a Manchurian operation in America. 

This is both interesting, and troubling. 

As your conservative friends continue to embrace what Vladimir Putin and Julian Assange have to say, rather than look into what our intelligence community is presenting in real time, you can help check their unpatriotic enthusiasm for their new comrades in Russia. You can start by asking them about the following stories ... 


From National Public Radio we get: "Putin Ordered 'Influence Campaign' to Help Trump, U.S. Intelligence Report Says." Some of the report's key findings include:

• Putin and the Russian Government "aspired to help President-elect Trump's election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton and publicly contrasting her unfavorably to him."
• The report states that Putin's motivation to discredit Clinton was at least partially personal. It says he "publicly blamed her since 2011 for inciting mass protests against his regime in late 2011 and early 2012, and because he holds a grudge for comments he almost certainly saw as disparaging him."
• Russian intelligence "conducted cyber operations against targets associated with the 2016 US presidential election, including targets associated with both major US political parties." This included primary campaigns, think tanks and lobbying groups.
• The report asserts with "high confidence" that Russia's General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate "relayed material it acquired from the [Democratic National Committee] and senior Democratic officials to Wikileaks."
• "Russian intelligence obtained and maintained access to elements of multiple US state or local electoral boards."
• Taken together, these efforts "represented a significant escalation in directness, level of activity, and scope of effort compared to previous operations aimed at US elections."

Then we have the Washington Post reporting: "U.S. intercepts capture senior Russian officials celebrating Trump win": 

Senior officials in the Russian government celebrated Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton as a geopolitical win for Moscow, according to U.S. officials who said that American intelligence agencies intercepted communications in the aftermath of the election in which Russian officials congratulated themselves on the outcome.

The ebullient reaction among high-ranking Russian officials — including some who U.S. officials believe had knowledge of the country’s cyber campaign to interfere in the U.S. election — contributed to the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that Moscow’s efforts were aimed at least in part at helping Trump win the White House.

Other key pieces of information gathered by U.S. spy agencies include the identification of “actors” involved in delivering stolen Democratic emails to the WikiLeaks website ... 

The key for us today is how much the political Right is bending over to ignore what these developments say about their Manchurian President-elect. Oh, and they also don't want anyone paying attention to their less than patriotic response to Russian operations in America. They know it makes them look like (cough, cough) turncoats. 

So this is what we have. America's conservative class would rather install "their guy" in the White House than try to determine why Vladimir Putin disliked Hillary Clinton so much, while ignoring the real reasons why Russia wanted Trump in the first place. Simply put, conservatives in America want to ignore the larger reality because of what it tells them about their guy ... 

Stay tuned. This is only going to get worse. 

- Mark 

WHAT'S THE BIGGEST THREAT TO LIFE FACING THE WEST? IT'S PROBABLY NOT WHAT YOU THINK ...

If you think Islamic terrorism is the biggest threat to life in America you are wrong. Sure, terrorist acts are sensational, and cause a good deal of drama for those inclined to embrace fear as a working mentality. But it's not the #1 threat to your life. Not by a long shot ..

Let's emphasize a couple of points made in the clip above. In the United States you are about 12,000 times more likely to die from a gun related incident than you are from a Muslim related act of terror. Worse, a child with a gun is a bigger threat to life than a Muslim terrorist. So, yeah, gun violence in America - as I've pointed out elsewhere - is a greater threat to innocent life in America than Muslim terrorism.

So, if you and your friends want to believe terrorism is the biggest threat to life in America go ahead and believe what you want. But you are wrong, big time ...

Now you just need to ask yourself, as the clip above points out, Who benefits from creating this culture of fear?

- Mark

VLADIMIR PUTIN'S REAL LONG GAME ... YES, IT HINGES ON AMERICAN DECLINE

I want to start the new year off by pointing to a must read article that captures the new world order (disorder?) we are seeing unfold before our eyes. It's from Politico Magazine, and is titled, "Putin's Real Long Game."

THE SETTING
In a few words the article by Molly K. McKew argues the world we know is over, and Russia is moving quickly to manipulate trends to their advantage.

The big question is whether President-elect Donald Trump can figure out how the new world is evolving in time to maintain America's global position. Things don't look good.

Since the article is a relatively long read (for many) I'll synopsize the broader argument below.

* THE CRUMBLING WEST: The post-WWII world order, built around Western democratic ideals, global institutions, and free markets (called "liberal internationalism"), is crumbling.

* RUSSIAN LONG-TERM STRATEGY: Russia is doing all it can to undermine what remains of U.S.-led ideals and global institutions, and has been preparing for what's transpiring today since Vladimir Putin's arrival on the global stage.

* TRUMP'S CONFUSION: There's no real confidence that Donald Trump cares about these global trends, or that he really understands Putin's larger global play.

The real issue is that Russia has already abandoned the post-WWII liberal order created by the West. They may have benefited from it's stability when the Soviet Union collapsed, but the Russians feel no special tug to maintain the system today. This is especially the case if it means they must continue playing second fiddle to the United States and Western Europe.

This shouldn't be a surprise. It's the essence of power politics, a game world leaders have modified but haven't abandoned over the millenniums.

This explains, in part, why Russia has worked to undermine NATO, and is opposed to virtually all western-led trade treaties. They only maintain the status quo, which is not good for Russia.

Worse, Western-led institutions are collaborative and nominally transparent. Authoritarian states like Russia don't work well in these kind of environments.

WHAT'S DRIVING RUSSIA
The fact that Russia neither wields influence nor controls these international institutions only makes them a nuisance in the eyes of the Kremlin. Additionally, institutions like NATO, the European Union, and the World Trade Organization aren't viewed as stabilizing institutions. They are tools of an oppressive system led by arrogant men who have it out for Russia.

Russia is engaged in a war, where strategic goals can only be met by pursuing political outcomes favorable to Moscow. If that means bombing Syria and creating refugee flows that destabilize European unity that's OK. If hacking an election and installing an illiberal, populist-nationalist regime  in America helps achieve Russian goals then this is what needs to be done.

Politically, Russia is an anti-democratic state. Putin's long tenure, the fact that Putin had members of Pussy Riot, a largely unknown punk band, imprisoned for criticizing him, while numerous journalists have been killed in Russia, is testament to Russia's undemocratic nature. From a market perspective, it's no secret that Russia is largely managed by insular oligarchs who have no problem operating in an environment of crony capitalism (so does Wall Street's biggest financial institutions, but that's another story for another day).

Put more simply, the Russian state is led by a gang of bikers who have no problem flaunting the law. But they also understand how the appearance of rules are necessary for them to keep order and make money off of the ignorant hoards who still believe democracy matters.

Why does this all matter? Because Vladimir Putin understands all of this. Putin is a smart man. He knows what he's doing. He's in this for the long haul. And he clearly understands the geopolitical stage, and how the game is played. He is a chess player on the world's global chessboard. And Donald Trump? Not so much.

RUSSIA'S STRATEGY
To achieve their ends Russian propaganda efforts have been consistent in their line that the post-WWII system built by the West is in decline. Specifically, Europe is in collapse mode. Brexit proved this. So did the 2008 market collapse.

Donald Trump's election, combined with tens of millions Americans having no interest in getting to the bottom of Russia's efforts to interfere with our 2016 elections, illustrate how transparency and democracy don't really matter in America. The fact that tens of millions of Americans don't care about Russian tampering is proof of American decline.

So Russia smiles as the strength of the West - confidence in the values of both our people and our political institutions - is battered by jubilant victors in the United States, who don't seem to care that winning domestic political battles with the help of Moscow moves America one step closer to losing the larger geo-strategic war.

Specifically ...

They don't seem to understand that chaos in Syria and the Middle East, plus streams of refugees into Europe, helps destabilize both the European Union and Western alliances by putting pressure on democratic institutions and relationships throughout the continent.

They don't care, or don't seem to understand, that Russian interventions in Chechnya, Ukraine, Georgia, and the Crimea (among others) are really part of a smoke & mirrors campaign designed to undermine NATO and rebuild the Russian empire.

They don't care that Donald Trump's financial interests have him involved with Russian oligarchs which, as I've pointed out elsewhere, compromises America's long-term strategic interests.

Fractured Western alliances ... an aggressive strongman-strategist with nuclear weapons rattling Europe's front door ... and an American president who's more interested in his own wealth than the future of a nation ... All of this contributes to the sense that the West is in chaos, if not outright decline.

Growing domestic divisions and doubts about internal institutions, coupled with crumbling alliances, doesn't paint a pretty picture for the future.

And it certainly doesn't help that Russia's figured out the purpose of war today is not just the physical destruction of a nation-state with an invading army. It also includes the slow erosion of a nation's confidence, unity, and sense of shared values.

On this score, Vladimir Putin is playing a good part of the American electorate, and the European continent, like a drum.

There's more to this story, which you can access by clicking here.

- Mark

Hat tip to Agulia for the link to the article.