Showing posts with label Extreme Do Over. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Extreme Do Over. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

THEY'VE LEARNED NOTHING ...

Back in March and July I wrote about how our non-regulatory and non-punitive responses to the 2008 market collapse effectively sets us up for an Extreme Do Over.

In a few words - and using ABC's Extreme Makeover Program as an example - I argued "that rather than demolish the commercial banking and investment infrastructure that got us into this mess - and then rebuilding everything with strong firewalls - the Obama administration has signed off on the old framework."



The point I made in both posts was that we've learned little to nothing from the market meltdown. The same people, the same thinking, and the same institutions that got us into this mess are still dominating our economy. In many respects, these developments create all the trappings for an Extreme Bailout Do Over.

This article from William Black offers additional insight into why we should not be surprised if we go through another 2008 market meltdown.

Black - who is a white-collar criminologist, a former senior financial regulator, and now an Associate Professor of Economics and Law - tells us that the epic regulatory failures at the Federal Reserve are the product of the continued intersection of a failed ideology with bad economics.

Specifically, Black points to five failures that are the stuff of legend:


1. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan believed that the Fed should not regulate fraud because the market would clean up fraud on it's own.

2. Current Chair Ben Bernanke also believed that the Fed should rely on self-regulation by “the market.”

3. Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Tim Geithner believed that he was never a regulator while he headed the NY Fed (a true statement as it applied to him, but not one he’s supposed to admit).

4. Bernanke gave key support to the Chamber of Commerce’s effort to gimmick bank accounting rules to cover up their massive losses — allowing them to report fictional profits and “earn” tens of billions of dollars in bonuses

5. Bernanke recently appointed anti-regulation crusader Dr. Patrick Parkinson as the Fed’s top supervisor.

Of these five developments, Dr. Parkinson's recent appointment is especially noteworthy because it shows that our regulatory mandarins have learned nothing from the past year.



Specifically, Dr. Parkinson was appointed largely because he shared Dr. Bernanke’s anti-regulatory ideology, a view that he hasn't changed even in the face of the Great Recession. Perhaps more importantly, as Black points out, Parkinson is an economist who has never examined or supervised. This is important because Parkinson is also known for naively claiming that credit default swaps (CDS, a.k.a the financial derivatives that destroyed AIG) should be unregulated because fraud was impossible among sophisticated parties! Huh?

Who believes crap like this? Oh, that's right. The same people who believe "invisible hand" pixie dust creates free markets where people magically become virtuous in the pursuit of profit.

And fairy tale market conditions exist too ... if you just close your eyes, click your heels together, and repeat the words, "There's no place like home ..."



Look, I'm all for creating useful myths and legends that help to build and unify a society (like George Washington never told a lie). But saying fraud is impossible among sophisticated parties in a market setting is like saying mingling among societies' power elites will turn ladies of the night into ladies of virtue. It doesn't happen.
 
At the end of the day, the anti-regulatory policies that Greenspan, Bernanke, Geithner, and now Parkinson champion are simply naive and reckless. Wishful thinking is no substitute for good policy.

- Mark

Saturday, July 18, 2009

EXTREME DO OVER, II

In this NY Times' piece written by Joe Nocera, the author speculates as to why Congress is making such a fuss over the developments that led to the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger. According to Nocera, two concerns lie at the heart of the matter.

Members of Congress are concerned that they were bullied and cowed by Wall Street and the Bush administration into giving trillions for an industry that is now reporting billions in taxpayer escorted profits. Making matters worse is that foreclosures and unemployment are on the rise, while the financial sector wants to continue playing by the old rules. Middle America is not happy.

Called to testify include Federal Reserve Chair Paul Bernanke, Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis, and former Goldman Sachs CEO and immediate past Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.

What we have is one group that is embarrassed and upset that they were gamed, while the other see themselves as maligned and misunderstood saviors. As you can imagine, the perceptions of both groups are no recipe for shedding light on the bailout events under scrutiny. Still, as Nocera suggests, Congress sees a chance to grandstand over the Lords of the Bailout. I agree.

What makes the show constituent-worthy for Congress is that several members believe Bank of America's Ken Lewis either gamed the panic conditions of the times (in December) to get more money for merging BofA with a crippled Merrill Lynch. Others believe they see something else: Lewis extorted money from the government by threatening to pull out of the Merrill Lynch deal, which would have made the panic conditions of the times worse.

According to Nocera, it was at this time that Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke decided to play hard ball with Lewis.

According to one account, Paulson and Bernanke probably reminded Lewis of the easy times his industry had enjoyed from the regulators, essentially telling him, ‘You haven’t had very good capital ratios, and we’ve looked the other way ... Now it is payback time. We’ve let you do deal after deal after deal. Now it’s time to take one on the chin.’ ” According to Nocera, Bernanke and Paulson probably also reminded Lewis that as regulators they could simply fire him.

Still, in spite of their tough guy bravado, to soften the blow of taking on more taxpayer bailout money, Bernanke and Paulson agreed to cough up an additional $20 billion (to be paid back at 8% interest) to placate Lewis.

According to Nocera, by accepting the extra money BofA has now accepted as much overall TARP money as Citigroup, which is the very symbol of a crippled bank. The end result is that the BofA-Merrill Show will do little more than allow members of Congress to say to their constituents, "See, look at me beat up on ___________."

Most troubling for me, though, is that the underlying problems still exist: A bailout culture that breeds incompetence, the same regulatory infrastructure that encouraged stupidity and greed, favorable legislation for a crippled industry, etc. I have no problems with Congress settling scores. But they also need to fix what got us into this mess. Niether the BofA-Merrill Show, nor the recently announced Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, move us in this direction.

As I suggested in March, we may be setting ourselves up for an Extreme Do Over. Stay tuned.

- Mark

Thursday, July 16, 2009

THE DEAL PROFESSOR

If you ever wanted to get into some of the ugly details surrounding corporate governance and their ethical (or lack thereof) practices The Deal Professor is the site for you. Managed by two lawyers who deal in corporate law and research, the site looks at developments that the headlines tend to miss.

In this review, "Are Banks Getting Cheeky?", Steven M. Davidoff tells us that banks are beginning to ratchet up the same attitude and scams that got us into this mess. So, yes, they're getting cheeky.

Some of you may find some of the language a bit tedious - finance speak is tough to learn for many - but the site is a great source for those looking to understand the forces behind the financial currents. If you've read my book - and like it - you will love this site. Have fun.

- Mark

Friday, March 27, 2009

EXTREME DO OVER ...

I just took a look at Paul Krugman's latest op-ed piece in the NY Times. It's one of his usual masterpieces - chock full of information, with powerful insights that others miss.

In a few words Krugman is pointing out that what President Obama is doing for the banking and financial sector is rebuilding the system that got us into this mess. Rather than get into the details of securities and banking the best way to think about what Paul Krugman is saying is to think about ABC's hit program Extreme Makeover.


In Extreme Makeover, ABC's design team arrives to bailout a struggling family who do the right thing through their lives, but find themselves overwhelmed by development, most of which they had no control over. Rather than take the family's old frame ABC's design team demolishes everything and rebuilds an entirely new home, with beautiful landscapes and, at times, they even throw in a car and tuition for college.

Krugman correctly points out that rather than demolish the commercial banking and investment infrastructure that got us into this mess - and then rebuilding everything with strong firewalls - the Obama administration has signed off on the old framework. The idea is to leave the framework (that encourages security markets) and strengthen the foundation with lots of taxpayer money and new regulations (which Geithner asked for this week). Krugman thinks this is a bad idea.

So do I.

This post is already long enough, but you can read Krugman's article to understand why he doesn't like what's happening. I also discuss the dangers of keeping the old framework in chapters 11 & 12 of my book. In a few words, we're setting ourselves up for an extreme do over.

- Mark