KGET 17 NEWS ELECTION MORNING ANALYSIS

It's election day in America. Republican Cathy Abernathy and I took a look  at the local and national scene in this morning's KGET 17 News Sunrise program, which you can access here. In a few words, I make it clear if we're looking at what the math geeks (the quants), the market (the gamblers), and the political scientists are seeing Hillary Clinton is the next president of the United States.

I even ventured a guess as to how many electoral college votes Hillary might get, and touched on why Rep. David Valado (R-Hanford / CA 21) has run so many misleading "chainsaw" ads in the last week of this election.

We'll be back on KGET later tonight, at 5 pm, 6 pm, and from 11pm through midnight tonight ...

- Mark

DEMOCRATS, GET OUT AND VOTE TODAY

While Barack Obama is not on the ballot, progress and democracy are ... Democrats and progressives across the country need to get out and vote today.

- Mark

ELECTION PROJECTIONS FROM FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

It's 10:23 am Monday, on Nov. 7 - the day before the presidential election - and this is what election map projections, and trends, are looking like from Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com ...

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Then we have the electoral road map from the UK's Independent, which lays out what needs to happen for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump to win the presidency ... 

Long story short, if the trends hold, Hillary's 82.7% chance of winning in Virginia (13 electoral college votes), coupled with her 74.5% chance of winning Colorado (9 ECV) and 53.6% chance of winning Nevada (6 ECV) give her 285 electoral college votes (270 needed to win), and the presidency ... and this is without winning Ohio (18 ECV) or Florida (29 ECV). 

One more thing. According to Nate Silver's site, Hillary's projected to win Florida (29 ECV)  and North Carolina (15 ECV).

- Mark

Addendum: One other thing, "the market" (i.e. assorted online gambling sites) has increased Hillary's chances of winning since last week, and is now giving her 2/9 odds of winning (81.8%), which leaves Trump with 9/2 odds, or a little over an 18% of winning the election.

SOMETHING NON-POLITICAL THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTIONS ... AND IT'S PRETTY COOL TO WATCH

Sponsored by Red Bull, this "Danny MacAskill's Wee Day Out" is pretty awesome ...

- Mark 

RAIDERS BEAT THE BRONCOS, 30-20

After beating the Denver Broncos, the Raiders are 7-2 and in first place in the AFC West ...

- Mark

Addendum: And, yes, I know, it's not nice to rub it in. But the meme was too good to pass up. Payback at some point, is expected :-) .

TRUMP'S MAN IN THE MIRROR

via GIPHY

- Mark

Addendum: I think we all hope we're wrong about this. But Trump's early considerations for cabinet and other positions point to a future administration of partisan hacks who reject both science and the spirit of democracy. Seriously. You can't lose the popular vote and think you have a mandate.

BORN BEFORE THE 19th AMENDMENT, AND BEFORE WOMEN COULD VOTE, LILLIAN CASTS HER BALLOT

My sister-in-law's grandmother, Lillian Delpero, was born before the 19th amendment was ratified, and before women had the right to vote. She's 96 now and filled out her ballot to cast her vote for Hillary Clinton. 

Lillian's life journey is the American experience. 

My wife Wendy, Lillian Delpero, and yours truly enjoying breakfast.

As a side note, I'm happy to report that my daughter, who is 19 years old, is casting her first vote for Hillary as well. A nice bookend in the progress of the human condition.

As a reminder of why this election is so important, this is what it looked like when women tried to win the right to vote about the time Lillian Delpero was born ...

Unfortunately, there are many women who (sadly) will vote for Hillary's opponent. They're doing this for many reasons, but mostly because they don't understand how we live in an environment where a woman who is as experienced and qualified as Hillary still has to fight against a damaged man who's not her equal and, quite frankly, doesn't deserve to be on her stage.

- Mark

LIFE UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP

- Mark

Hat tip to Leonel. The entirely appropriate caption that goes along with the gif is a product of Leonel Martinez' genius (no relation; though, somewhere down the line, it does help explain the genius   ).

HOW AMERICA IS LIKE A BAD BOYFRIEND

From College Humor we get "How America is Like a Bad Boyfriend" ...

- Mark 

CALM DOWN DEMOCRATS, IT'S STILL HILLARY ... AND YOU CAN THANK THE MARKET, THE QUANTS, AND THE POLITICAL GEEKS FOR THE STORYLINE

With FBI director James Comey's unprecedented, and irresponsible, releasing of news of unverified emails tied to Hillary Clinton, Americans think they are staring at an October Surprise of epoch proportions. The not entirely unexpected result is that many progressives, and Democrats in general, are worried more than ever about Hillary's prospects.

Let me help: She's still winning.

Correction. If the election were held today, even with Comey's mess, Hillary wins.

While I could do all the policy and political analysis necessary to make my case it's much easier to look at sites used by the markets, the quants, and the political geeks. I've used all of these in the past (there's actually a good story tied to this; another post for another day).

With that, here's what the markets, the quants, and the geeks are saying.

THE MARKET
These are the money betting sites, and they represent "the market."

There are a lot of these out there. The best one I've seen, Intrade, is no longer around. But there are others. Oddschecker has Hillary at 4/1 odds and Trump at 8/1 this morning. Other sites are saying pretty much the same thing.

So, according to the market, Hillary wins the election.

THE QUANT
Then we have the quants, which for many means Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight site.

As of this morning Hillary is given a 74.3% of winning the presidential election. Whether you like Nate Silver or not, he's got a pretty good track record here.

So, according to the quant guy, Hillary wins the election.

THE POLITICAL GEEK
Finally, we have the political science experts.

Larry Sabato is generally considered the #1 political science guru when it comes to presidential elections, so I'm sticking with him. While acknowledging that polls were narrowing before Comey's ugly mess, Larry Sabato still sees Hillary winning comfortably next week (which means you can ignore Nate Silver on this).

So, according to the political geek, Hillary wins the election.

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At the end of the day, if there were a split between the market players, the quants, and the political geeks you might be correct in assuming Hillary might not pull this out. But there's no divergence.

There's one more thing. Once more information starts coming out about FBI director Comey's double standard - specifically, not releasing what the FBI and the intelligence community know about Russia's interference, especially with their courting of Trump - Hillary's lead should stabilize and/or even grow by the end of the weekend.

So, yeah, calm down Democrats. It's still Hillary.

- Mark