Friday, June 29, 2018

SUPREME SUSPICION

In the FYI department, red flags have been raised on Deutsche Bank's lending to Trump - when no other major bank in the world would - for a while now.  The fact that Justice Kennedy's son approved or worked these loans means he lies at the heart of whatever financial intrigue Trump had (has?) going on.
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Sitting on an impeachment trial that potentially involves Russian collusion, money laundering, and your son's role in keeping Trump's financial ship afloat means Kennedy would have had a serious conflict of interest in making a decision. Justin Kennedy's role in keeping Trump's bankruptcy machine afloat - when no one else would touch him - mean Justice Anthony Kennedy would have had a motive to make sure his son doesn't come out looking like Trump's financial stooge (bagman?) for the hundreds of millions he helped send Trump's way, courtesy of Deutsche Bank.

- Mark

IT'S DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME IN AMERICA ... SET YOUR CLOCK BACK A FEW DECADES


Last night I was on KGET's 17 News segment again, with Republican Cathy Abernathy. We discussed Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy's pending retirement, immigration and Donald Trump's trade policies. In a few words, I made it clear that:

* It's Daylight Savings Time in America ... Justice Kennedy's announced retirement and Trump's conservative Supreme Court pick will set the country's clock back by a few decades, especially when it comes to individual rights. 
* No Art of the Deal ... After bombing at the G-7 Summit, caving in to North Korea's Kim Jong Un (who's currently upgrading his nuclear facilities), becoming Vladimir Putin's lap dog on the world stage, and generally undermining western cohesion, conservatives like Cathy Abernathy still think Trump knows how to make a deal. 
* Trade partners becoming trade competitors ... With a frayed western alliance, looming tariff battles, currency devaluations, and global debt loads we're heading for a 1930s-like environment. Simply put, as I point out in my political economy and international relations classes, if goods can't cross borders, soldiers will.

From last night's discussion on KGET's 17 News segment ...


And, yes, I am a prophet :-)

- Mark

After last night's discussion, a former student sent me the picture below, with some kind comments. The fact that they're paying attention - and appreciative of what I do - puts a smile on my face.



Wednesday, June 27, 2018

HITLER DIDN'T HAPPEN OVER NIGHT ... HISTORY IS WHISPERING IN OUR EAR

People forget, Adolf Hitler didn't happen over night. His rise to power was made possible by the slow bleed of scapegoating and hate. Calls for civility were accompanied with the naive and blind assertions that "it can't get any worse" or "this can't be happening here" in a stable democracy ...

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Throw in the debt loads and trade wars - complete with tariffs battles and competitive currency devaluations - that followed the market collapse of 1929, and history becomes our nation's whisper.

- Mark

Hat tip to David Chisholm for the page clip, from "The Death of Democracy: Hitler's Rise to Power and the Downfall of the Weimer Republic," by Benjamin Carter Hett.


Tuesday, June 26, 2018

YES, TRUMP HAS ENCOURAGED VIOLENCE

"The President in no way, form, or fashion has 
ever promoted or encouraged violence."

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As a reminder, Donald Trump regularly called for a return to "the old days" ...


- Mark

WE'VE SEEN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S WHINY ACT BEFORE ... IN SOUTH PARK

So Trump administration staffers are upset that they are getting turned away at public establishments. What they forget is they have no problem with bakers turning away the LGBT community, with the DHS turning away Muslims at ports of entry, or with ICE hunting down anyone who looks Latino, as a result of their policies. Sarah Huckabee Sanders even claimed that she's surprised at the hostility because "the President in no way, form, or fashion has ever promoted or encouraged violence."

Yeah, right ...

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With all the whining from the Trump administration, because they've been both turned away from public establishments and heckled by people who are not comfortable with the Trump administration's vulgar and violent tone, I was reminded of the South Park clip below.

Specifically, Eric Cartman, the resident conservative bully in South Park gets what's coming to him (but not as much as he deserves), and becomes a complete snowflake for it ...



And, yeah, this is pretty much what we're seeing with the Trump administration today. They're whining and complaining about having the tables turned on their thuggish and bigoted approach to governing, and think they deserve sympathy and respect.

Snowflake doesn't even begin to cover what we're seeing from the Trump administration today.

And their supporters think they're winning ...

- Mark

Monday, June 25, 2018

DONALD TRUMP'S HOUSE OF LIES



The Washington Post unravels Donald Trump's 5 biggest lies to date. Stay tuned. There will be more of these ...



- Mark

THE "I WAS ONLY FOLLOWING ORDERS" DEFENSE IS AS WRONG TODAY AS IT WAS THEN

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For a look into the "I was only following orders" defense, the video clip of the Nuremberg Trials after World War II below shows how easy it was for the Nazis to say - in very creative ways - that they should be absolved of their crimes (at 5 minutes and 6:45 into the clip). In effect, the argument that war and inhumane acts are justified if you were just a pawn in the game takes away the concept of free will, and abrogates the notion that we should be capable of independent thought or empathy in what we do on a daily basis.


Also, Albert Speer's commentary towards the end of the clip is insightful, and especially pertinent to what's happening today.

- Mark

Friday, June 22, 2018

FOX NEWS vs. NORTH KOREAN STATE TV

While conservatives like to claim they're independent thinkers, they sure like it when the narrative is controlled, and their "ideas" are spoon-fed to them. 


- Mark

Thursday, June 21, 2018

DONALD TRUMP WANTS PRAISE FOR HIS FLIP FLOPS ON IMMIGRATION

A synopsis of the Trump administration's stance on its family-separation policy.

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- Mark

WHY THEY'RE COMING ... THE SUPPLY SIDE OF IMMIGRATION INTO THE UNITED STATES

For years, in my Politics of Latin America class, I used the book Bitter Fruit: The Untold Story of the American Coup in Guatemala, written by Stephen Schlesinger and Stephen Kinzer (Anchor Books, 1982). The book is an eye opener for almost everybody who reads it. 

Jacobo Arbenz, president of Guatemala, 1951-1954.

Bitter Fruit reads like a James Bond thriller, except the 1954 CIA-directed overthrow of Guatemala's democratically elected president, Jacobo Arbenz, was real. Understanding the CIA-led overthrow of the Guatemalan government is important because it helps us frame Guatemala's - and much of Central America's - current development predicament, and why their people are leaving. In a few words, rather than moving towards genuine economic development, which many Guatemalans believed was around the corner after ridding itself of the corrupt and authoritarian General Jorge Ubico in 1944, Guatemala took a series of big steps backward.

Specifically, after getting rid of the popular and democratically elected Arbenz government in 1954, the United States imposed a military dictator, and set the tone for how Guatemala would be governed for decades.

Guatemala's military junta, with Carlos Castillo Armas sitting next to CIA agent (the driver).  

Successive military juntas would do the cold war bidding of the United States, while cozying up to the United Fruit company and other U.S.-sanctioned business interests. Military authoritarianism became the norm for successive governments, who didn't want to run afoul of the United States.

Guatemala's development, as you can imagine, stalled after 1954 as the country devolved into a semi-feudal military racket, with civil war and domestic unrest. This background set the tone for many of the political and economic challenges we see in Guatemala today.


The point is - and contrary to what most people in the United States understand - the problems and challenges that Guatemala face today are a direct result of the United States undermining a popularly elected, reform-minded, government. For years the United States misled the world, and billed the overthrow of the Arbenz government as a spontaneous citizen-led uprising. Nothing could have been further from the truth. It was planned and led by the CIA.

The U.S. then replaced the Arbenz government with a military dictatorship, led by Carlos Castillo Armas (pictured above) who proceeded to run the economy into the ground, and terrorized the poorest and most vulnerable populations in Guatemala. While the stories of Honduras and El Salvador are different, they are similar in that U.S. involvement helped to militarize their economies and created untenable economic situations. All of this has helped create much of the havoc we see in Central America.

The result has been massive migration from Central America - which the CIA labels "blowback" - and flawed policy "solutions" that focus on the militarization of border control, both in the United States, and in Mexico.


There's more to this story, but one thing is clear: Most Americans have no idea what we're seeing on the border, in many respects, is a direct result of what the United States did throughout Latin America during the cold war (and before). It should also be clear that fixing this mess is not going to happen over night, or if they just "stay there and fix their own problems."

There's more to this story, but the best thing to do is pick up a book or two on the topic. For Latin America, Bitter Fruit is a good place to start. You can follow this up with After the Coup: An Ethnographic Reframing of Guatemala 1954.

- Mark

Addendum: For a more personal review of what Guatemala was like after the 1954 coup, check out my friend and colleague's - and former political officer in the U.S. Guatemalan Embassy, from 1980 through 1982 - essay, which you can access by clicking here.

Addendum, II: For a look at how the U.S. created the Mother of All Blowbacks in the Middle East with the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran click here.

Friday, June 15, 2018

OOPS, WRONG JESUS

If you saw Jeff Sessions defend the administration's policy of separating children from their parents, or watched Sarah Huckabee's shameful press conference on the topic - and how Sarah tried to use the Bible to justify the Trump administration's position - this should help you discuss the issue with your Christian friends.


- Mark

TRUMP SALUTES A DICTATOR'S GENERAL, AND RIGHT WING NOISE MACHINE IS SILENT


Remember how the GOP, Fox News and even some MSM lost their lunch when Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez ran President Obama down to get a handshake and a picture with him? Well, Donald Trump went out of his way to salute and pay his respects to a dictator's underling, a military general.

North Korea's state-run (and only) television station ran with it ... 


If you're wondering what's wrong with this picture, let me explain. First, it sets the wrong standard because it takes an apologetic tone after Trump was so bellicose with "rocket man" in the past. Now he's saluting his underling.

Second, both our friends and our foes, will be quick to take advantage of a situation [in the future] if they think they're dealing with a weak president, or one who is not going to stand up and aggressively defend America's interests.

Oh, wait. My choice of words about standards, apologetic tone, and a weak president (in italics) may have been over the top. But they weren't mine. They were spoken by former Vice-President Dick Cheney, as he referred to Obama's handshake with Chavez.

I wonder what VP Cheney is thinking now ...

- Mark

Thursday, June 14, 2018

WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE DONALD TRUMP IS, SIMPLY PUT, AN IMBECILE

When it comes to commerce and trade, Donald Trump doesn't have a clue what he's doing, which is precisely why he's more dangerous than most initially believed ...

So, yeah, when it comes to international commerce Donald Trump is, effectively, an imbecile. You can read about Trump's troubles understanding how commerce and trade work by clicking here.

For those of you who want to understand trade from the heights of history, and why it can be such a powder keg in the hands of an imbecile, I'll be posting on the topic tomorrow.

- Mark

IT'S RAINING STUPID IN AMERICA

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You can read the entire "fake news is the enemy" story by clicking here.

Then we have Trump failing on the global stage, spectacularly ...







- Mark

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

THE NORMALIZATION OF TRUMP IS A CANCER ON AMERICAN VALUES


The Sacramento Bee has an excellent piece that outlines the global and domestic mess that is the Trump administration.
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Below is a snippet of how degraded our national culture and diplomatic values around the world have become since we started normalizing Donald Trump. Bigotry and national exclusion are now embraced as values to be exported to Europe and the rest of the world ...

In addition to the vicious actions of the U.S. government vis-à-vis undocumented immigrants, the American ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, gave an interview to Breitbart in which he said he sought to empower Europe’s far-right conservative movements, regarded Austria’s far-right chancellor as a “rock star” and stated that, in contrast to the failed policies of the German government, the rising populist movements America embraces wanted to strongly curtail immigration into the Western world. 
One would think the U.S. would think twice before allowing America’s representative in Germany, of all places, to preach the virtues of race purity and neo-Nazism to Europeans. But in our shameless, ahistorical era, Grenell’s words didn’t even merit a rebuke from the State Department.

There's more, which you can access by clicking here

- Mark

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

TRUMP JUST GOT PLAYED IN SINGAPORE ... YET HIS SUPPORTERS THINK HE'S WINNING


Donald Trump is getting played on the global stage, but continues to think he's some kind of geopolitical grand master. After giving away the South China Sea to China for a song, bungling our NAFTA negotiations, getting wiped off the Trans-Pacific Partnership map (then trying to get back in), becoming a global pariah on climate change, ticking off our western allies because he doesn't understand trade, continuously blowing diplomatic kisses to Vladimir Putin, and backing away from an Iranian nuclear framework (that even Russia and China support), Donald Trump just gave North Korea's dictator a diplomatic and geostrategic gift.

Not only did Donald Trump grant Kim Jong Un a big geostrategic gift - the suspension of military exercises - Trump also gave Kim Jong Un the global and political legitimacy that he's been craving for years. And he did this after creating a line in the sand, and telling the world that Kim Jong Un would have to denuclearize if the U.S. were going to negotiate.

Now after daring the Korean dictator not to cross his "denuclearize-or-else" line, Trump unilaterally gave into Kim Jong Un's wish list, which effectively gives Kim the story line to go back and tell his people - and argue credibly to the world - that just possessing his nuclear toys allowed him to outfox the U.S. on the global stage.  The NY Times' Nicholas Kristoff explains:

Within North Korea, the "very special bond" that Trump claimed to have formed with Kim will be portrayed this way: Kim forced the American president, through his nuclear and missile tests, to accept North Korea as a nuclear equal, to provide security guarantees to North Korea, and to cancel war games with South Korea that the North has protested for decades.

What did Trump - faux author of "Art of the Deal" - get in return? Nothing.

Oh, wait. Kim did say he was committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula ... which is exactly what North Koreans have promised since 1992.


So, this is what we have. North Korea keeps its promise to think about a denuclearized Korean peninsula, while Trump stops military exercises, grants additional security guarantees to Kim and effectively gave Kim a global stage to tell the world that the U.S. is now listening to him.

Nice, if you're Kim Jong Un.

What's worse is what Mr. Art of the Deal failed to get from the North Koreans. And it's "Nuclear Negotiations 101" stuff that Trump, and his even tougher 'tough man' negotiator, John Bolton, should have pressed for all day long. But they didn't.

Nicholas Kristoff provides a small list of things Trump failed to get (or even ask for?):
1. Freeze all plutonium and uranium programs (the Iranian deal compelled Iran to eliminate 98 percent of its enriched uranium).
2. Destroy its ICBM missiles
3. Allowing inspectors into North Korea's nuclear sites.
4. A timetable (to be fair, you can't have a timetable if you got nothing to put on the table)
5. A pledge from North Korea to halt nuclear tests, or long range missiles.
There's more, but here's the point. Donald Trump just made a major blunder - in a long string of blunders - on the global stage.

OK, here's one more thing to think about.

Contrary to what Donald Trump thinks, Kim Jong Un didn't agree to return to Singapore because of Trump's demands. China's desire to keep it's finger in the pot compelled them to maintain UN-imposed sanctions on North Korea. As well, Kim Jong Un met with China's President Xi Jinping in the run-up to the summit to discuss security terms (North Korea's) with China. It was China who gave Kim the green light to go to Singapore.

How influential was China in all of this? The North Korean dictator arrived in Singapore on an Air China plane (China's state-run carrier).



Finally, I want you to consider where North Korea was before the Singapore Summit (and where they're at today). North Korea is one of the poorest nations in the world. Their people regularly experience periods where many starve, and lack for basic amenities, like energy. Check out a satellite picture of North Korea at night, where most of the country is blacked out for lack of electricity (Seoul is the bright light at the top of South Korea) ...


The Korean Peninsula at night. North Korea is the darkened area, above South Korea.

What this means is that Kim Jong Un didn't have many chips on the table to negotiate with at the summit, yet he's walking away with significant gifts from Donald Trump. For his part, Trump will end up getting mad and throwing another global tantrum when Kim doesn't move on his "denuclearization" non-promise, and scratch his gifts to Kim, creating a diplomatic nightmare that didn't need to happen.

So, yeah, all of this is going to come back to haunt us.

Specifically, unraveling our security guarantees in the region, undermining long-standing western alliances and agreements, while enabling dictators are all going to cost us down the road, big time.

And Trump's supporters think he's winning. Sigh ...

- Mark

IS TRUMP TRYING TO DESTROY THE WEST? IT SURE LOOKS LIKE IT

" ... Trump isn’t telling the truth about trade, much as 
he has lied about Barack Obama’s birthplace, his own 
position on the Iraq War, his inauguration crowd, voter 
fraud, the murder rate, Mexican immigrants, the Russia 
investigation, the Stormy Daniels hush money and several 
hundred other subjects. The tariffs aren’t a case of his 
identifying a real problem but describing it poorly. 
He is threatening the Atlantic alliance over a lie."


- David Leonhardt
NY Times



You can read David Leonhardt's entire article - "Trump Tries to Destroy the West" - by clicking here.

- Mark

Monday, June 11, 2018

SO MUCH FOR COUNTRY FIRST

The two pictures below paint a portrait of our new reality. 

The first captures a moment at this past weekend's G-7 Summit, where Donald Trump went out of his way to demonstrate he has no clue about alliance building, let alone global commerce and trade. In a few words, Trump is trying to impose a "me-first" approach to global trade, which history makes clear never works. 



The second picture, below, pretty much explains what's really behind Trump's petulance. He's acting like Vladimir Putin's puppet, and doing his level best to do what Russia wants. Specifically, Trump's breaking the American bank (deficit spending) and splitting the western alliance, something Putin has been trying to do for years.




So much for country first. You can catch up with the discussion by checking out this PBS news segment.

Meanwhile, at least someone in Washington is pointing out the emperor has no clothes ...



- Mark

Friday, June 8, 2018

KGET 17 NEWS PRIMARY ELECTIONS ANALYSIS

Oops, I forgot to post this ...


I was on KGET 17 News' Sunrise Edition again the morning after the primary elections with Republican Cathy Abernathy. We discussed some of issues we're going to be looking at as we move towards the general election ...


If you have trouble with the clip, here's the take aways ...

* Cathy Abernathy seems to think that a $6.1 billion "rainy day" surplus is a bad thing. Republicans need to come in and fix it, by giving it away to their rich friends. 
* Cathy Abernathy also seems to believe that the growing economy President Obama handed over to Trump is now Trump's alone. 

Here's the key, which I point out 3:40 into the clip: It took President Obama over two years to fix George W. Bush's mess, it's going to take Trump more than a couple of years to wreck it (the economy). I make a couple of nice points at towards the end, starting around the 6 minute mark.

Enjoy.

- Mark 

Thursday, June 7, 2018

IF HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF, DONALD TRUMP IS FAST BECOMING KING WILHELM II


"The Kaiser viewed other people 
in instrumental terms, was a 
compulsive liar, and seemed to 
have a limited understanding 
of cause and effect."

- Miranda Carter 


Every year, in the fall, I begin my upper division International Relations Theory class by looking at the various causes of war. We end up categorizing the determinants of war along three lines. Tensions between states caused by intractable differences and entangling alliances. The rise of bellicose and undemocratic states who cause trouble for everyone. And, finally, the ever present frailties and failures of individuals. 

The first compel us to look at the logic (and fears) of the international system, while the second asks us to consider how states organize themselves. The last compels us to review, once again, the human condition. It forces us to look at personalities, character and, yes, even ask whether some leaders are simply incompetent nincompoops (though I don't quite phrase it that way). 

I'm bringing this up because The New Yorker has an excellent piece - "What Happens When a Bad-Tempered, Distractible Doofus Runs an Empire?" - that looks at what we call the "individual level of analysis." The article, written by Miranda Carter, brings us the sad and pathetic story of Kaiser Wilhelm II, who ruled Germany from 1888 to 1918. We also know him as the German leader who drove the country into war, and pretty much left Germany in political and economic disarray for a generation. 

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I hope you read Miranda Carter's piece (by New Yorker standards, it's not long). The real strength of the article lies in its explanation of how the puzzle pieces leading up to WWI were put in place because of Kaiser Wilhelm's missteps, while everyone stood by and watched, hoping it would all go away.

More importantly, for those who understand the relationship between history and current events, the article helps explain the slow motion damage Donald Trump's petulant recklessness has already caused, to both America and the world.

- Mark

GOOD GRIEF, IT NEVER ENDS ...

One day after Donald Trump tried to claim that Canada was responsible for burning down the White House in the War of 1812, we get this pathetic history lesson from the Trump administration's equally uninformed State Department ...  


All I'm going to say is that you couldn't fake this level of stupidity, if you tried. Seriously, the misinformation and callous stupidity is so consistent that one could be forgiven for believing that ignorance is part of every Trump appointee's political DNA.

It's like we're living in a running SNL skit.

- Mark 

If you still have doubts, check out Trump's latest brilliant commentary from this morning. It never ends.

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

WHO'S BURIED IN GRANT'S TOMB? DONALD TRUMP, "UH ... THAT WOULD BE YOSEMITE SAM"

Wow. Just wow. Trump claims Canada invaded the U.S. and burned down the White House in the War of 1812. This is part of his justification for imposing tariffs on Canada.

Sigh ...

This goes beyond embarrassing, and puts Trump's presidency on to a new level of national degradation and international humiliation that Trump and his followers are too self-absorbed and ignorant to understand. 


For those of you who are thinking of ways to defend our Idiot Prince know that the War of 1812 is basic grade school information that even the kids who are behind on the curve get.

Still thinking of ways to defend Trump's ignorance? Know that, with Donald Trump, this kind of historical ignorance happens all the time. It's not a gaffe. There's a pattern here. Trump really is that stupid.

- Mark

IRONIC HUMOR, AND "AD OF THE WEEK"

I was driving in downtown Bakersfield last week and saw this ... 


If you don't see it immediately you'll get it once you read the sign.

- Mark

FNC CREATING FAKE NEWS, AGAIN

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A reminder of how the news would have been reported if Fox News was around to cover other events throughOUT history ...
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- Mark

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

CALIFORNIA'S UNIQUE POLITICAL HISTORY IS NO ACCIDENT (election night distraction)

Ronald Reagan and Governor-elect, Jerry Brown, 1974.

When Governor Brown terms out later this year the state of California will see the end of an era that began in 1958. Since then, beginning with Governor Pat Brown, and ending with his son Jerry, the Browns will have had a cumulative 24 years of running the state between them. This is an impressive political stretch for any political dynasty.

More interestingly, as this NY Times piece points out, the Brown's victories have been done with little help from a strong formal party structure, a unique political feature that baffles and challenges political analysts across the country.

Governor Reagan and President Nixon (who lost his 1962 gubernatorial race to Pat Brown), 1970.

I know it's election day, so if you don't have the time now you should find the time to read the piece later. It's short, and has all the basics that I talk about in my Intro to American Government classes when I discuss federalism, and California's role in our national system of government.

- Mark

Monday, June 4, 2018

KEVIN McCARTHY, "A MINDLESS SYCOPHANT"?

It's good to see the national press picking up on the obvious ...
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On the evidence of House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s CNN interview over the weekend, the likely next speaker of the House is a mindless sycophant and a threat to the constitutional order.
Confronted with a simple ethical question — would he condemn demonstrable White House lies in covering up President Trump’s role in drafting his son’s account of the now-infamous 2016 Trump Tower meeting with Russians — McCarthy, a California Republican, was initially dumbstruck, then shifted into a prerecorded attack on special counsel Robert S. Mueller III. It would have been easy enough to say: “The president and his team are hurting themselves with unnecessary falsehoods. Their overall case, however, is strong.” But such is the atmosphere of intimidation in the Republican Party that affirming the Ninth Commandment is seen as an act of disloyalty. When the king is a liar, truth becomes treason.
For all his faults, Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) was occasionally capable of showing some ethical outrage. (After Trump attacked U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel as biased because of his ethnicity, Ryan called it “the textbook definition of a racist comment.”) McCarthy seems to be more of a memory-foam Republican — taking the exact shape of presidential pressure. Ryan was clearly uncomfortable when ignoring his principles. McCarthy seems to view surrender to the president as a matter of principle — as part of the tribal code of the partisan. His is the loyalty of the lap dog, the devotion of the dupe ...
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You can read the entire Washington Post article by clicking here.

- Mark 

PRESIDENT REAGAN EXPLAINS WHY TRUMP'S AN IGNORANT WRETCH ON COMMERCE & TRADE

Former President Reagan explains why Donald Trump's reckless tariff talk is a bad politics and even worse economics ...


Let me add that this is political economy 101, and lies at the heart of what my students learn in my courses on political economy and international relations. Anyone who defends Trump on his tariff agenda is either ignorant of basic economics or a mindless sycophant.

- Mark