This is one of those good news, bad news scenarios. You be the judge ...
First, the bad news. According to World Trade Monitor the volume of global trade declined during the first half of 2015, dropping by its largest percentage since 2009. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2015 trade fell by 1.5%, and then slid south another 0.5% in the second quarter.
Now for the good news. World trade actually grew 2 percentage points during the month of June and, according to the International Monetary Fund, is projected to grow by 3.5% for all of 2015.
Taking it all in, one thing becomes clear: After recent market events, no one really knows what's going to happen by the end of the year.
Seriously, the volume of global trade is going to have to take off over the next 6 months if we're going to reach IMF projections.
But then we have to consider what's really happening in China ... and Greece, and Cyprus, and Europe, and whatever "surprise" event no one ever anticipates.
Then there's the reality behind the "successes" in the U.S. stock market over the past 6 years.
So, yeah, stay tuned.
- Mark
First, the bad news. According to World Trade Monitor the volume of global trade declined during the first half of 2015, dropping by its largest percentage since 2009. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2015 trade fell by 1.5%, and then slid south another 0.5% in the second quarter.
Now for the good news. World trade actually grew 2 percentage points during the month of June and, according to the International Monetary Fund, is projected to grow by 3.5% for all of 2015.
Taking it all in, one thing becomes clear: After recent market events, no one really knows what's going to happen by the end of the year.
Seriously, the volume of global trade is going to have to take off over the next 6 months if we're going to reach IMF projections.
But then we have to consider what's really happening in China ... and Greece, and Cyprus, and Europe, and whatever "surprise" event no one ever anticipates.
Then there's the reality behind the "successes" in the U.S. stock market over the past 6 years.
So, yeah, stay tuned.
- Mark
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