SUPPORT THE SENATE HEALTH CARE BILL?

Super Numbers Geek, and all around smart guy, Nate Silver has a nice chart that helps to "uncomplicate" the current health care debate. That is, if you like charts. In a few words, Silver believes that if the Holy Grail for Liberals and Progressives was to get a single-payer system (everyone is covered by one payer) while the alternative is the status quo (a dysfunctional health care system that eventually bankrupts the nation) America could do a lot worse than what the Senate just passed.

Silver places the current Senate Bill just below a watered down public option, but significantly above the status quo. You can check out his reasoning here.

To arrive at this point Silver looks at some of the key components in the Senate Bill and finds some real positive nuggets: (1) a ban on denying coverage for people with pre-existing conditions, (2) additional and much stronger regulations on insurers, (3) the creation of health insurance exchanges, and (4) mandating that insurance companies spend between 80-90% of all the premium money they take in on health care (currently they only spend about 70%). These are significant advancements.

Still, progressives like Jane Hamsher at Firedoglake.com are opposed to the current bill for the following (good) reasons:

1. It forces you to pay up to 8% of your income to private insurance corporations -- whether you want to or not.

2. If you refuse to buy the insurance, you'll have to pay penalties of up to 2% of your annual income to the IRS.

3. After being forced to pay thousands in premiums for junk insurance, you can still be on the hook for up to $11,900 a year in out-of-pocket medical expenses.

4. Massive restriction on a woman's right to choose, designed to trigger a challenge to Roe v. Wade in the Supreme Court.

5. It's partially paid for by taxes on the middle class insurance plans you have right now through your employer, causing them to cut back benefits and increase co-pays.
 
6. Many of the taxes to pay for the bill start now, but most Americans won't see any benefits -- like an end to discrimination against those with preexisting conditions -- until 2014 when the program begins.

7. Allows insurance companies to charge people who are older 300% more than others.

8. Grants monopolies to drug companies that will keep generic versions of expensive biotech drugs from ever coming to market.

9. No reimportation of prescription drugs, which would save consumers $100 billion over 10 years.

10. The cost of medical care will continue to rise, and insurance premiums for a family of four will rise an average of $1000 a year -- meaning in 10 years, you family's insurance premium will be $10,000 more annually than it is right now.

Both Silver and Hamsher make very good points. But this chart from Nate Silver (from his post "Why Progressives Are Batshit Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill") helps to explain why what's in the Senate Bill is still better than sticking with the status quo. In a few words, up-front out of pocket expenses are much lower under the current Senate Bill (about $9,000) than under the projections for the current system ($19,576).

I'll have more to say about this tomorrow. I'll also explain why I think we may have to support the bill that will emerge from the Senate & House Conference Committee.

- Mark

UPDATE: Here's a link that uses Jane Hamsher's 10 reasons to oppose the Health Care Bill as the rationale for supporting the bill. I like it.