There are those who think the interactive Zogby polls on Hillary v. Any Republican are a problem. And they are, if you (1) are concerned about good polls and/or (2) are a Hillary supporter (the polls have her losing). Simply put, internet polls are skewed by the participation of motivated, partisan types (but they’re not as bad as the lazy reporters who run with the story).
For those who don’t understand how poorly constructed polls are done consider this extreme example. In 1936 the Literary Digest had Republican Alf Landon beating FDR in a landslide (57-43%). We know FDR walloped Landon with 62.5% of the vote. So what happened? Among the many problems for Literary Digest is their poll drew heavily from telephone directories and lists of automobile owners.
Don’t think too hard about it … it was the 1930s … we were in a Depression at the time. Who owned telephones and cars? Who were they most likely to vote for?
- Mark
No comments:
Post a Comment