Friday, October 15, 2010

FORECLOSURE FOLLIES & FALSE POSITIVES

Here's how you know you're dealing with a survey company that's dealing from the bottom of the deck ...

Check out this question, and see if you can spot the section where they're doing a little "push-polling" (planting an idea in your head before they ask the question they really want you to answer).

2.* Some say that Wall Street investors and mortgage companies are to blame for the problems with subprime mortgages and foreclosures. Others say that individuals who borrowed more than they could afford are to blame. Who do you believe is primarily to blame?

Can't find it? OK, let's try again. This time I'll pull out the phrase that makes the query a "leading" question. Using the same language I'll ask the question the way it should be asked, if the pollsters were being intellectually honest.

2.* Some say that Wall Street investors and mortgage companies are to blame for the problems with subprime mortgages and foreclosures. Others say that individuals are to blame. Who do you believe is primarily to blame?

Got that? The polling company inserted "who borrowed more than they could afford" in an attempt to plant the idea that borrowers were reckless and irresponsible when they took out loans.

If I were going to reverse the goal - and try to make an equally culpable Wall Street and their mortgage industry buddies out to be the bad guys - I would ask the question like this ...

2.* Some say that Wall Street investors and mortgage companies who recklessly securitized loans and took out insurance that could not be paid if the market collapsed are to blame for the problems with subprime mortgages and foreclosures. Others say that individual homeowners are to blame. Who do you believe is primarily to blame?

See how that works? The question takes on an entirely different connotation when you suggest that Wall Street's recklessness is also to blame for the mess.

The poll, which was reported in Rasmussen Reports, was conducted by Rasmussen, a conservative-leaning polling organization. They finished off their 5 question push-poll with this innocuous sounding question ...

5.* Would you favor or oppose a plan forcing banks to stop all mortgage foreclosures for the next six months?

As you can imagine, the wording of Question #2 allowed them to come up with this "made for TV" headline.


"Americans Are Now Less
Supportive of a Foreclosure Moratorium"


Nice. I'm sure Wall Street and the mortgage industry was happy with this one (though I'm not sure who paid for the poll).

At the end of the day, as I always tell my students, you can't simply depend on what the polls say. You need to know who's asking the questions, and how they put the poll together.

- Mark

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