NDI: IRAQ, "A MAJOR DEBACLE"

By way of SusanG I found this report "Choosing War: The Decision to Invade Iraq and Its Aftermath (PDF). It's from the National Defense Institute, which is billed as the Pentagon's "premier educational institute." The opening line sets the tone:

Measured in blood and treasure, the war in Iraq has achieved the status of a major war and a major debacle.

The analysis, for the Bush administration, doesn't get much better after that.

Globally, U.S. standing among friends and allies has fallen. Our status as a moral leader has been damaged by the war ... At the same time, operations in Iraq have had a negative impact on all other efforts in the war on terror, which must bow to the priority of Iraq when it comes to manpower,materiel, and the attention of decisionmakers. Our Armed Forces — especially the Army and Marine Corps — have been severely strained by the war in Iraq. Compounding all of these problems, our efforts there were designed to enhance U.S. national security, but they have become, at least temporarily, an incubator for terrorism and have emboldened Iran to expand its influence throughout the Middle East ...

The reasons things haven't gone well are tied to 5 overarching assumptions made by the Bush administration that proved to be both wrong and based largely on "wishful thinking."

1. The fighting would end in a "climactic battle."

2. We would be welcomed with "sweets and flowers."

3. There would be no "score settling" because Iraqis hungered for democracy.

4. Iraq would be able to fund the war.

5. The troops would receive help from Iraqi police, the Iraqi Army, and state ministries.

More than wishful thinking, what stands out in this report is how prevalent willful ignorance was in the run up to war.

... much of the postinvasion state of affairs had been predicted. Many government and civilian experts had spoken well and loudly about the dangers of postwar Iraq, but their warnings were not heeded.

This is a well written and extremely accessible assessment of what happened in the lead up to war. It points enough fingers for us to see that George Bush, Dick Cheney, Condoleeza Rice, and Donald Rumsfeld will likely go down as Historical Incompetents, on many levels.

- Mark